Atlantic Hurricane Forecast for 2019

2019 Atlantic hurricane forecast – season with 13 named storms
Published 11:26 a.m. ET April 4, 2019 | Updated 9:02 a.m. ET April 5, 2019

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is forecast to have five storms reach hurricane status, according to a team of researchers at Colorado State University. Two of the hurricanes are forecast to reach “major hurricane strength” of Category 3 to 5, or winds of 111 mph or greater.

  • 13 tropical storms are forecast to form, of which 5 will be hurricanes.
  • A weak El Nino and cool Atlantic waters are 2 limiting factors this year.
  • Insurance companies, emergency managers and the media use the forecasts.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/04/04/hurricane-forecast-colorado-state-forecasters-say-5-form-2019/3363430002/

2019 Hurricane Names
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-04-08-hurricane-names-2019-atlantic-season

National Hurricane Center
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

What to Do Before the Tropical Storm or Hurricane
https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan

Hurricane Michael Is Close to Catastrophic

Hurricane Michael is close to a catastrophic, unprecedented Category 4 strike on the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend with a life-threatening storm surge and over 100 mph winds possible not just near the coast, but also inland that could leave some areas without power for over a week.

Photo by: The NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)

Read on… https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-historic-landfall-gulf-coast-florida

Five Day Graphical Weather Outlook – Please Not Again!

From the National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Blake

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

NOAA predicts active Atlantic hurricane season with 5 to 9 hurricanes

COLLEGE PARK, Md. — The federal government predicts an unusually active 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with five to nine hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30

To read more…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/05/25/noaa-hurricane-forecast-above-normal-season-expected/102115706/?csp=breakingnews

Tropical Storm Isaac weakens to tropical storm


MIAMI –

Isaac continued to drench Louisiana after making landfall as a hurricane Tuesday. Isaac was downgraded to a tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon.

In the NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory, Isaac was about 30 miles west-southwest of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. It was moving northwest at 5 mph.

Isaac was expected to continue moving in the same general direction before turning to the north-northwest by late Thursday or early Friday. Isaac was expected to further weaken as it moved inland.

60%

A tropical wave in the open Atlantic Ocean could become our next named storm, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

At 8 p.m., the system was about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Forecasters said the system had become better organized. It was given a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

As the tropical wave moved west, Local 10 Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield wanted to remind everyone that we are in the peak of hurricane season.

Kirk Wednesday 5pm

Tropical Storm Kirk strengthened slightly over the open Atlantic.

In the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, Kirk was about 1,110 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Kirk was forecast to turn toward the northwest by Thursday evening. It poses no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Isaac takes aim at northern Gulf Coast


MIAMI –

Tropical Storm Isaac strengthened as it neared the Gulf Coast.

In the 11 p.m. advisory Monday, Isaac’s winds were at 70 mph with higher gusts. The storm was moving northwest at 10 mph and was about 190 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Isaac is expected to approach the northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday afternoon. Isaac could become a hurricane early Tuesday.

As Isaac moved away from South Florida, Local 10 Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield wanted to remind everyone that we are in the peak of hurricane season.

With its massive size and ponderous movement, a strengthening Isaac could become a punishing rain machine depending on its power, speed and where it comes ashore along the Gulf Coast.

The focus has been on New Orleans as Isaac takes dead aim at the city seven years after Hurricane Katrina, but the impact will be felt well beyond the city limits. The storm’s winds could be felt more than 200 miles from the storm’s center.

The Gulf Coast region has been saturated thanks to a wet summer, and some officials have worried more rain could make it easy for trees and power lines to fall over in the wet ground. Too much water also could flood crops, and wind could topple plants like corn and cotton.

“A large, slow-moving system is going to pose a lot of problems — winds, flooding, storm surge and even potentially down the road river flooding,” said Richard Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “That could happen for days after the event.”

The storm’s potential for destruction was not lost on Alabama farmer Bert Driskell, who raises peanuts, cotton, wheat, cattle and sod on several thousand acres near Grand Bay, in Mobile County.

“We don’t need a lot of water this close to harvest,” Driskell said.

However, Isaac could bring some relief to places farther inland where farmers have struggled with drought. It also may help replenish a Mississippi River that has at times been so low that barge traffic is halted so engineers can scrape the bottom to deepen it.

Forecasters predicted Isaac would intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday with top sustained winds of between 74 and 95 mph. The center of its projected path took Isaac directly toward New Orleans Tuesday and Wednesday, but hurricane warnings extended across some 280 miles from Morgan City, La., to the Florida-Alabama state line. It could become the first hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast since 2008.

Evacuations were ordered for some low-lying areas and across the region, people boarded up homes, stocked up on supplies and got ready for the storm. Schools, universities and businesses closed in many places.

Still, all the preparation may not matter if the great danger becomes flooding. In Pascagoula, Miss., Nannette Clark was supervising a work crew installing wood coverings over windows of her more than 130-year-old home. But she said all that won’t matter if a storm surge reaches her home, as it did after Katrina in 2005.

“The water was up to the first landing of the stairs,” she said. “So I get very nervous about it.”

Isaac’s approach coinciding with the Katrina anniversary invited obvious comparisons, but Isaac is nowhere near as powerful as the Katrina was when it struck on Aug. 29, 2005. Katrina at one point reached Category 5 status with winds of over 157 mph. It made landfall as a Category 3 storm and created a huge storm surge.

Federal Emergency Management Agency officials said the updated levees around New Orleans are equipped to handle storms stronger than Isaac. Levee failures led to the catastrophic flooding in the area after Katrina.

“It’s a much more robust system than what it was when Katrina came ashore,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate in a conference call with reporters.

In New Orleans, officials had no plans to order evacuations and instead told residents to hunker down and make do with the supplies they had.

“It’s going to be all right,” said New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.

Isaac could pack a watery double punch for the Gulf Coast. If it hits during high tide, Isaac could push floodwaters as deep as 12 feet onto shore in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and up to 6 feet in the Florida Panhandle, while dumping up to 18 inches of rain over the region, the National Weather Service warned.

As of 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, Isaac remained a tropical storm but winds had gotten stronger at 70 mph (110 kph). Its center was about 255 miles (415 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and it was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph).

On the Alabama coast, Billy Cannon, 72, was preparing to evacuate with several cars packed with family and four Chihuahuas from a home on a peninsula in Gulf Shores. Cannon, who has lived on the coast for 30 years, said he thinks the order to evacuate Monday was premature.

Hurricane watches, warnings issued as Isaac moves west through Lesser Antilles


MIAMI –

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to move west Wednesday morning, and is expected to reach hurricane strength. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #10 formed in the eastern Atlantic.

In the 11 a.m. advisory Wednesday, Isaac had sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west at 21 mph. The center was about 140 miles east of Guadeloupe.

South Florida remains in the cone of probability.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A hurricane watch was issued for the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique Guadeloupe and the surrounding islands, St. Martin, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, and parts of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti-Dominican Republic northern border eastward to north of Isla Saona.

Long range models show the storm will move into the Caribbean on Thursday morning, before heading for the southern side of Hispaniola and Cuba. The storm could potentially turn north and threaten South Florida early next week. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands now has a near 100 percent chance of development. According to the National Hurricane Center, satellite imagery indicates the system could become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

As Isaac approaches South Florida, read what Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield suggests residents do to prepare.

Hurricane watches, warnings issued as Isaac moves through Leeward Islands


MIAMI –

Tropical Storm Isaac continued to move west Wednesday afternoon, and is expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday evening or Friday. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #10 formed in the eastern Atlantic late Wednesday morning.

In the 11 p.m. advisory Wednesday, Isaac had sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts and was moving west at 20 mph. The center was about 25 miles east of Guadeloupe and about 270 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

South Florida remains in the cone of probability.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border, and for Haiti.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten. The British Virgin Island, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands are also under a tropical storm warning.

The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti-DR northern border eastward to north of Isla Saona is under a tropical storm warning.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the southeastern Bahamas, including The Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, The Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands, and Turks and Caicos.

 

Long range models show the storm will pass near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and approach the Dominican Republic Thursday evening or early Friday. The storm could potentially turn north and threaten South Florida early next week. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Isaac could become a hurricane by Thursday evening or Friday, said the National Hurricane Center.

TD10 Thursday 5 pm

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #10 had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was about 1,045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving west-northwest at 17 mph, and that general movement was expected to continue for the next couple of days. Tropical Depression #10 was expected to strengthen, and could become a tropical storm overnight.

As Isaac approaches South Florida, read what Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield suggests residents do to prepare.

Both Miami-Dade County Public Schools and Florida Governor Rick Scott issued statements regarding Isaac on Wednesday.

In a statement, Chief Communications Officer John Schuster said: “The school district is monitoring the progress of the storm and working closely with the County’s Emergency Operations Center to prepare for the possibility of a tropical storm.”

Scott also issued a statement, saying: “Although Tropical Storm Isaac is still far from Florida’s shores, we are closely tracking the potential for the storm to impact part or all of the state, including the Tampa Bay region during the Republican National Convention.  Florida’s state emergency management team and local emergency teams have been working closely with convention officials and have been planning for this event for more than a year, and the possibility of a hurricane hitting the convention has been part of that planning process.

“I am confident in our preparation, and the decision process in place to ensure the safety of both our residents and visitors during the convention.

“As Florida’s governor, I’m urging everyone across the state to monitor the storm track, and use the next several days to prepare for a potential storm.  As we know, storms this far from land are still unpredictable and everyone should be vigilant and prepared.” 

Scott was expected to speak with the media Thursday morning regarding Isaac.