Five Day Graphical Weather Outlook – Please Not Again!

From the National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Blake

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

NOAA predicts active Atlantic hurricane season with 5 to 9 hurricanes

COLLEGE PARK, Md. — The federal government predicts an unusually active 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with five to nine hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30

To read more…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/05/25/noaa-hurricane-forecast-above-normal-season-expected/102115706/?csp=breakingnews

Tropical Storm Isaac weakens to pleasant storm


MIAMI –

Isaac continued to suffuse Louisiana after creation landfall as a whirly Tuesday. Isaac was downgraded to a pleasant charge on Wednesday afternoon.

In a NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory, Isaac was about 30 miles west-southwest of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, with limit postulated winds of 60 mph. It was relocating northwest during 5 mph.

Isaac was approaching to continue relocating in a same ubiquitous instruction before branch to a north-northwest by late Thursday or early Friday. Isaac was approaching to serve break as it changed inland.

60%

A pleasant call in a open Atlantic Ocean could spin a subsequent named storm, a National Hurricane Center pronounced Wednesday.

At 8 p.m., a complement was about 900 miles west-southwest of a Cape Verde Islands.

Forecasters pronounced a complement had spin improved organized. It was given a 70 percent possibility of building into a pleasant storm in a subsequent 48 hours.

As a pleasant call changed west, Local 10 Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield wanted to remind everybody that we are in a rise of whirly season.

Kirk Wednesday 5pm

Tropical Storm Kirk strengthened somewhat over a open Atlantic.

In a NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, Kirk was about 1,110 miles east-northeast of a northern Leeward Islands with limit postulated winds of 50 mph. It was relocating west-northwest during 12 mph.

Kirk was foresee to spin toward a northwest by Thursday evening. It poses no hazard to land.

Tropical Storm Isaac takes aim during northern Gulf Coast


MIAMI –

Tropical Storm Isaac strengthened as it neared a Gulf Coast.

In a 11 p.m. advisory Monday, Isaac’s winds were during 70 mph with aloft gusts. The charge was relocating northwest during 10 mph and was about 190 miles southeast of a mouth of a Mississippi River.

Isaac is approaching to proceed a northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday afternoon. Isaac could turn a whirly early Tuesday.

As Isaac changed divided from South Florida, Local 10 Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield wanted to remind everybody that we are in a rise of whirly season.

With a vast distance and hulking movement, a strengthening Isaac could turn a punishing sleet appurtenance depending on a power, speed and where it comes ashore along a Gulf Coast.

The concentration has been on New Orleans as Isaac takes passed aim during a city 7 years after Hurricane Katrina, though a impact will be felt good over a city limits. The storm’s winds could be felt some-more than 200 miles from a storm’s center.

The Gulf Coast segment has been jam-packed interjection to a soppy summer, and some officials have disturbed some-more sleet could make it easy for trees and energy lines to tumble over in a soppy ground. Too most H2O also could inundate crops, and breeze could disintegrate plants like corn and cotton.

“A large, slow-moving complement is going to poise a lot of problems — winds, flooding, charge swell and even potentially down a highway stream flooding,” pronounced Richard Knabb, executive of a National Hurricane Center in Miami. “That could occur for days after a event.”

The storm’s intensity for drop was not mislaid on Alabama rancher Bert Driskell, who raises peanuts, cotton, wheat, cattle and sod on several thousand acres nearby Grand Bay, in Mobile County.

“We don’t need a lot of H2O this tighten to harvest,” Driskell said.

However, Isaac could move some service to places over internal where farmers have struggled with drought. It also might assistance feed a Mississippi River that has during times been so low that boat trade is halted so engineers can scratch a bottom to lower it.

Forecasters likely Isaac would feature into a Category 1 whirly by Tuesday with tip postulated winds of between 74 and 95 mph. The core of a projected trail took Isaac directly toward New Orleans Tuesday and Wednesday, though whirly warnings extended opposite some 280 miles from Morgan City, La., to a Florida-Alabama state line. It could turn a initial whirly to strike a Gulf Coast given 2008.

Evacuations were systematic for some low-lying areas and opposite a region, people boarded adult homes, stocked adult on reserve and got prepared for a storm. Schools, universities and businesses sealed in many places.

Still, all a credentials might not matter if a good risk becomes flooding. In Pascagoula, Miss., Nannette Clark was supervising a work organisation installing timber coverings over windows of her some-more than 130-year-old home. But she pronounced all that won’t matter if a charge swell reaches her home, as it did after Katrina in 2005.

“The H2O was adult to a initial alighting of a stairs,” she said. “So we get really shaken about it.”

Isaac’s proceed coinciding with a Katrina anniversary invited apparent comparisons, though Isaac is nowhere nearby as absolute as a Katrina was when it struck on Aug. 29, 2005. Katrina during one indicate reached Category 5 standing with winds of over 157 mph. It done landfall as a Category 3 charge and combined a outrageous charge surge.

Federal Emergency Management Agency officials pronounced a updated levees around New Orleans are versed to hoop storms stronger than Isaac. Levee failures led to a inauspicious flooding in a area after Katrina.

“It’s a most some-more strong complement than what it was when Katrina came ashore,” pronounced FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate in a discussion call with reporters.

In New Orleans, officials had no skeleton to sequence evacuations and instead told residents to seat down and make do with a reserve they had.

“It’s going to be all right,” pronounced New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.

Isaac could container a flowing double punch for a Gulf Coast. If it hits during high tide, Isaac could pull floodwaters as low as 12 feet onto seaside in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and adult to 6 feet in a Florida Panhandle, while transfer adult to 18 inches of sleet over a region, a National Weather Service warned.

As of 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, Isaac remained a pleasant charge though winds had gotten stronger during 70 mph (110 kph). Its core was about 255 miles (415 km) southeast of a mouth of a Mississippi River, and it was relocating northwest during 12 mph (19 kph).

On a Alabama coast, Billy Cannon, 72, was scheming to leave with several cars packaged with family and 4 Chihuahuas from a home on a peninsula in Gulf Shores. Cannon, who has lived on a seashore for 30 years, pronounced he thinks a sequence to leave Monday was premature.

Hurricane watches, warnings released as Isaac moves west by Lesser Antilles


MIAMI –

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to pierce west Wednesday morning, and is approaching to strech whirly strength. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #10 shaped in a eastern Atlantic.

In a 11 a.m. advisory Wednesday, Isaac had postulated winds of 45 mph and was relocating west during 21 mph. The core was about 140 miles easterly of Guadeloupe.

South Florida stays in a cone of probability.

A whirly watch is in outcome for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and a U.S. Virgin Islands. A whirly watch was released for a British Virgin Islands.

Tropical charge warnings are in outcome for Martinique Guadeloupe and a surrounding islands, St. Martin, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, a British Virgin Islands, and tools of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and a U.S. Virgin Islands.

A pleasant charge watch is in outcome for a north seashore of a Dominican Republic from a Haiti-Dominican Republic northern limit east to north of Isla Saona.

Long operation models uncover a charge will pierce into a Caribbean on Thursday morning, before streamer for a southern side of Hispaniola and Cuba. The charge could potentially turn north and bluster South Florida early subsequent week. Additional strengthening is foresee during a subsequent 48 hours.

Meanwhile, a pleasant call nearby a Cape Verde Islands now has a nearby 100 percent possibility of development. According to a National Hurricane Center, satellite imagery indicates a complement could turn a pleasant storm within a subsequent 48 hours.

As Isaac approaches South Florida, review what Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield suggests residents do to prepare.

Hurricane watches, warnings released as Isaac moves by Leeward Islands


MIAMI –

Tropical Storm Isaac continued to pierce west Wednesday afternoon, and is approaching to strech whirly strength by Thursday dusk or Friday. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #10 shaped in a eastern Atlantic late Wednesday morning.

In a 11 p.m. advisory Wednesday, Isaac had postulated winds of 45 mph with aloft gusts and was relocating west during 20 mph. The core was about 25 miles easterly of Guadeloupe and about 270 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

South Florida stays in a cone of probability.

Hurricane warnings are in outcome for a south seashore of a Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to a Haiti-Dominican Republic border, and for Haiti.

A pleasant charge warning is in outcome for Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten. The British Virgin Island, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and a U.S. Virgin Islands are also underneath a pleasant charge warning.

The northern seashore of a Dominican Republic from a Haiti-DR northern limit east to north of Isla Saona is underneath a pleasant charge warning.

Tropical charge watches are in outcome for a southeastern Bahamas, including The Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, The Inaguas, Mayaguana and a Ragged Islands, and Turks and Caicos.

 

Long operation models uncover a charge will pass nearby or south of a Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and proceed a Dominican Republic Thursday dusk or early Friday. The charge could potentially turn north and bluster South Florida early subsequent week. Additional strengthening is foresee during a subsequent 48 hours as Isaac could turn a whirly by Thursday dusk or Friday, pronounced a National Hurricane Center.

TD10 Thursday 5 pm

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #10 had limit postulated winds of 35 mph and was about 1,045 miles west of a Cape Verde Islands. It was relocating west-northwest during 17 mph, and that ubiquitous transformation was approaching to continue for a subsequent integrate of days. Tropical Depression #10 was approaching to strengthen, and could turn a pleasant charge overnight.

As Isaac approaches South Florida, read what Hurricane Specialist Max Mayfield suggests residents do to prepare.

Both Miami-Dade County Public Schools and Florida Governor Rick Scott released statements per Isaac on Wednesday.

In a statement, Chief Communications Officer John Schuster said: “The propagandize district is monitoring a swell of a charge and operative closely with a County’s Emergency Operations Center to ready for a probability of a pleasant storm.”

Scott also released a statement, saying: “Although Tropical Storm Isaac is still distant from Florida’s shores, we are closely tracking a intensity for a charge to impact partial or all of a state, including a Tampa Bay segment during a Republican National Convention.  Florida’s state puncture government group and internal puncture teams have been operative closely with gathering officials and have been formulation for this eventuality for some-more than a year, and a probability of a whirly attack a gathering has been partial of that formulation process.

“I am assured in a preparation, and a preference routine in place to safeguard a reserve of both a residents and visitors during a convention.

“As Florida’s governor, I’m propelling everybody opposite a state to guard a charge track, and use a subsequent several days to ready for a intensity storm.  As we know, storms this distant from land are still indeterminate and everybody should be observant and prepared.” 

Scott was approaching to pronounce with a media Thursday morning per Isaac.

June rains wash away drought conditions in South Florida

Heavy rains in June brought the usual bag of mixed blessings to South Florida: fewer wildfires, more mosquitoes, a healthier Lake Okeechobee and a solid start to storing up water for the coming dry season.

Traditionally the wettest month of the year, June brought 7.5 inches of rain to the South Florida watershed, thanks largely to a thunderous six days as the fringes of Tropical Storm Debby passed over the region. The rains raised Lake Okeechobee above 12 feet for the first time in eight months and put the region’s rainfall about two inches above the average for this time of year, the South Florida Water Management District reported Monday.

But officials said it was far too soon to discuss whether a successful rainy season could lead of a relaxation of water restrictions. With the current rains providing enough water for most users, the district is focused on accumulating water for the dry season and keeping streets passable.

“Right now we’re in flood control mode,” said Susan Sylvester, the district’s chief of water control operations. “Overall, we had a typical June in our area, and because of an early start to the wet season, water levels are consistent with where they should be this time of year.”

At Lake Okeechobee, the higher water improved prospects for endangered snail kites, which abandoned nests last year because of the parched conditions.

“The rain has been great for the lake’s ecosystem,” said Jane Graham, Everglades policy associate for Florida Audubon. “Last year the lake was at severely low levels, and the snail kite nests were failing. The contrast between that and today is really stark. The snail kites are actually doing pretty well.”

The rains induced millions of mosquitoes to hatch, leading Broward and Palm Beach mosquito control agencies to dispatch aerial units to spray insecticides over many neighborhoods.

But they also reduced the risk of wildfires. After warnings of tinderbox conditions in South Florida, the rain soaked the ground sufficiently to reduce the danger.

“The risk of wildfires is down greatly,” said Chris Wasil, forest area supervisor for the Florida Division of Forestry in Palm Beach County. “The rain came early this year, right as the lightning came through.”

Drought conditions that prevailed weeks ago throughout Florida have vanished from most of the peninsula, with only a strip of territory west of Lake Okeechobee classified as experiencing drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, operated by federal and academic scientists.

Although the initial water restrictions were controversial, many people have adapted.

Margie Walden, executive vice president of the Alliance of Delray residential association, said she has heard few complaints.

“Nobody has really talked about losing a lot of landscaping or anything,” she said. “And now everything is flourishing. Everything is growing like crazy. I think everybody feels blessed that the rains have filled up the aquifer.”

Betsy Dow, president of the Coral Ridge Association in Fort Lauderdale, said the restriction has been no problem, even though her husband is an avid gardener and their tropical landscaping generates many compliments.

Among the members of her neighborhood association, she said, “It’s been a non-topic. They know what the rules are and they just follow them.”

The rainy season started May 7, two weeks early. The season typically lasts until Oct. 13 and accounts for about two thirds of the year’s rainfall. The season proceeds in three phases: May through July 4, which is the wettest period, July through mid-August, which is hotter and drier, and late August through October, which varies greatly depending on the arrival of tropical storms and cold fronts.

The rain has been heaviest in the Kissimmee Valley north of Lake Okeechobee, the headwaters of the Everglades, which supplies water to South Florida. Farther south, the heaviest rains fell along coastal areas where most people live, as opposed to the Everglades and other interior lands.

Not much rain is expected over the next few days.

dfleshler@tribune.com, 954-356-4535

Disturbance to soak South Florida tonight; Tropical Storm Chris forms in Atlantic

Get ready for the skies to open up.         

A tropical disturbance centered near Cuba is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over South Florida, starting Tuesday evening and through Friday. Some areas could see considerably more.

“The main threat is going to be the potential for flooding,” said meteorologist Alex Gibbs of the National Weather Service in Miami.

Meanwhile, at 5 p.m. on Tuesday, Tropical Storm Chris emerged in the Atlantic about 560 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, Canada. It’s the third system of the young 2012 hurricane season – and no threat to land.

 The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Caribbean disturbance, saying “conditions are not particularly conducive” for the system to develop as it lumbers northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

As of 2 p.m. on Tuesday, the hurricane center gave the area of low pressure a 10 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days.

In the meantime, it likely will bring heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida, senior hurricane specialist Dan Brown said.

The bulk of the rains from disturbance should arrive Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Much of the region should receive 1 to 3 inches during that time. There also should be some thunderstorms in the squally mix, Gibbs said.

Officially, the South Florida forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of rain Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 50 percent on Tuesday night and 60 percent on Wednesday.

Central Florida might see the outer fringes of the system, but shouldn’t receive as much rainfall as South Florida, the weather service said. Orlando’s forecast calls for mostly sunny skies on Tuesday, a 20 percent chance of rain on Wednesday and a 40 percent chance on Thursday.

South Florida might not see a nice sunny day again until next week, Gibbs said.

“Things stay fairly wet through Friday and really through the weekend,” he said.