Mark my words: We’re going to face a really nauseous few weeks on amicable media. The nastiness will start this weekend and final by Apr 26, when 5 states will reason primaries with a large nominee transport in a balance.
Here’s why: We have 5 states entrance adult in that Bernie Sanders will substantially do very, really well. It’s not improbable that he could brush them all. But even a brush won’t change a structure of a competition in any way. Three of a 5 (Hawaii, Wyoming and Alaska) are states with comparatively few delegates. The Democratic contests are all proportional, so Hillary Clinton will get a share of representatives even if she gets close out.
Political reporters know that all 5 of these contests, combined, will comment for fewer representatives (286) than will New York alone on April 19 (291). Clinton is adult by 48 points in a latest check of New York, and by 33 points in 538’s weighted polling average. Things competence change, though it’s looking like a blowout during this point.
Then, one week after New York goes, 462 representatives will be awarded in 5 mid-Atlantic states. Clinton is a favorite in 4 of them, and one, Rhode Island (which has a little nominee count), is radically a toss-up.
So we have 286 representatives that will be awarded in primary Sanders domain between this Saturday and April 9, followed by a 10-day pause, and afterwards 753 some-more representatives will be awarded in a two-week duration in what’s looking, during this point, like plain Clinton country.
This widen of primaries is going to set off a war-of-words between Sanders supporters – and magnanimous media outlets that behind a Vermont Senator — and some-more neutral domestic reporters, generally data-based reporters who keep an eye on a nominee count and a calendar. That’s since there’s going to be a healthy undo between what appears to be a lot of movement on Sanders’ side, and a approach a mainstream media will impersonate a race.
Serious reporters know that a subsequent 5 contests will trim some representatives off of Clinton’s healthy lead – she’s now adult by 303 affianced representatives according to Real Clear Politics‘ count – that still leaves her good forward as a quarrel for a assignment moves to friendlier belligerent for a Clinton campaign.
Journalists with believe of a calendar won’t news that Sanders is branch a competition on a head. They won’t news that it’s a whole new ballgame, or that a win in Alaska predicts a feat in Maryland. They won’t news that Sanders is surging.
A lot of Sanders supporters will wish them to cover these victories in unconditional terms, and write that a movement has shifted, though they won’t. They won’t news these things since they aren’t true, or during slightest since there will be no reason to design them to infer loyal during a time (one never knows what competence occur in a future). If Sanders had swept 5 early contests and gained a lead in a nominee count, it competence have caused primary electorate in after states who leaned toward Clinton to re-evaluate their choice. But we’re some-more than median by a campaign, opinions are apropos set and when a possibilities get to New York, Clinton will still be adult by during slightest a integrate of hundred affianced delegates.
A lot of Sanders supporters have been primed by on-going media outlets that support a claimant – and several Facebook memes – to see these things by a prism of a swindling by a “establishment” media to keep Sanders down. So while a stating will be significant and obliged — and formed on a nominee math – we can design a amicable media feeds to fill adult with a million pissed off posts angry that Sanders’ large win in Wyoming (18 delegates) wasn’t front-page news, or perfectionist to know because a media exclude to news a apparent fact that these subsequent 5 contests are game-changers that will certainly propel Sanders to a stately feat over Hitlery Killton.
And a multitude of pro-Sanders writers during The Huffington Post and Salon and US UNCUT will stoke their ire by revelation them what they wish to hear. They will quietly write that Sanders’ win in a Washington Caucuses creates him a transparent front-runner in a competition for a nomination. They will credit a mainstream media of covering adult what they’ll see as an apparent reality.
So hang on, a subsequent month of a Democratic primaries are going to be a rough ride. The usually approach this unfolding doesn’t come to pass is if Clinton out-performs expectations over a subsequent few weeks.