Da Buh`s Surf Forecast – http://www.dabuh.com
PLEASE READ AND CONSIDER A PERSONAL NOTE AT THE END OF TODAY’S UPDATE
Morning everyone, looks like the call for SURF ALERT conditions in our last update has started this morning for NE Florida and should work it’s way down the Coast throughout the day. Local legend Terry Deloach was reporting early, Jax Bch Pier, waist to chest and glassy and Narley Charlie was calling Smyrna 3-5 with full on SURF ALERT conditions. Swell looks to hold into the waist plus range until Thursday before ramping up over the weekend with the possibility of seas reaching small craft advisories and Double Digit status in the offshore waters by Saturday. Very active outlook setting up so here goes.
Here’s a live look at this mornings IR Sat image. Low pressure over the N Central U.S. will move East dragging the next front East along with it with Low pressure over N Central Texas sliding up the Eastern Seaboard. After some much needed rain for NE Florida over the last several days chances for precipitation into next week are looking good.
Here’s the latest look at the GFS starting you off on Friday. There is consensus within the models so confidence is high at the moment. Front moves through on Thursday NE Florida and Central Florida South on Friday. High pressure building in behind the front with NE winds starting off 15-20 kts.
On Saturday the gradient tightens just a tad and winds look to hold NE 20 kts for much of the East Florida Coast. Take note of Low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic next several frames that could set up P.R. and the V.I with solid swell next week. Unclear at the moment.
Saturday afternoon winds ramping up to NE 20-25 kts with along NE Fetch setting up.
Then on Sunday High pressure moves East off the Mid-Atlantic and winds rotate to the East and back down a bit into the 10-15 kt range. Notice we still have a tight pressure gradient between High pressure and the near stationary Low in the Eastern Atlantic. This SHOULD have produced a swell train by this time frame sending it to the islands.
On Monday is where things will be monitored closely as low pressure may try and setup over in the Western GOMEX. Previous model runs was showing a Gulf low developing but has since backed off but as you can see in the latest run Western GOMEX showing a wide area of lower pressure.
What they are now trending towards is for another Low off the NE Florida Coast on Tuesday.
So here’s the call. Fun Surf conditions should prevail over the next couple of days with larger surf and NE conditions ramping up for the weekend. Possible SURF ALERT conditions again to start next week but need a few days to see how it will all start to play out but it’s looking like a consistent run of surf coming up. Stay tuned for the next update. As always forecast will and does change.
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