Models Hinting at First 2012 Tropical Storm of the Season

We normally don’t put much stock in the extended forecast models. However monitoring the back to back runs of the extended GFS and noting a few others, there is a strong indication that we may see our first Tropical Storm/Hurricane of the 2012 Season around the 20th of this month. Looking at the historical record and what the models are indicating this is a possibility as the  Earliest Cat 3 Hurricane was Hurricane Able, Back in May 1951, off the Florida East Coast.2012-05-10_100225

And here was yesterday’s 0000 Zulu run of the GFS for May 25th. Please keep in mind that we normally don’t put much stock in the extended forecast but also keep in mind that it’s happened before. The most recent run still suggest this same type of scenario however showing it as a weaker storm. Wait and See.2012-05-09_194548  That’s the extended so lets get back to reality and look at current. Models have tweaked a bit over the last 24 hours and instead of a primarily NE Flow discussed in our last update they have switched to a SE Flow.

Image below is Saturday showing High pressure over the Carolina’s and an Easterly flow developing over Florida and SE over the GOMEX. As mentioned in our last update, for our P.R. and V.I followers looks like LPG SWELL coming from the nearly stationary Low located in the NE Atlantic. More on that below.GFSSat On Sunday a shift to an ESE Flow as the High moves off to the SE.GFSSun Then on Monday continued SE flow with our eyes beginning to focus on the Northern GOMEX and the SW Caribbean to see how things start to set up in the atmosphere. GFSMon Then on Tuesday, continued SE Flow over Florida with the Low in the NE Atlantic being replaced by another smaller weaker one. This should help reinforce the NE Swells heading to P.R. and The V.I.GFSTues Then on Wednesday we see some lowering of pressure of the Florida East Coast that COULD tighten the gradient increasing a long SE Fetch aimed at the Carolina’sGFSWed Then on Thursday is when things could start to get interesting. Low pressure developing off the OBX moving off to the NE. But take a look down in the SW Carib. off Honduras showing a 1008 mb low coming together. This is where what could be our first storm of the 2012 Season is born. The extended forecast takes this and moves it up towards the Caymans and over Cuba and eventually off the Florida East Coast from this point forward.GFSThurs So here’s the skinny more surf on the way for Florida and the Southern shores of the Carolina’s coming up. Possible first Tropical Storm/Hurricane in the extended so stay tuned to the forecast.


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