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On with the forecast.
Models over the last 4 to 5 days have been hinting at an uptick in increased tropical activity and we now have verification of this trend. Within the last 24 hours we now have two INVEST designated by the National Hurricane Center. 90E INVEST in the E-Pac and our second INVEST of the 2012 Atlantic Tropical Season with 92L INVEST located in the NE Atlantic. Also during this time frame, models continue to suggest that the first Tropical Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be born in the SW Caribbean as early as next week starting around the 20th and we are now seeing this in the current 7 day forecast period. They have been consistent on development but skittish on track. The front and back end of hurricane season are often times when you have very little time to prepare as most of the these systems are homegrown. During Cape Verde season, you typically have a week to ten days to watch a system carve it’s path across the Atlantic as they exit the West African coast but not with the systems that are homegrown. They have a tendency to come together rather quickly and can reek havoc on any of your short term plans. With Dr. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach’s early prediction of increased homegrown tropical activity in the GOMEX now is the time to pay close attention. Additionally, you don’t need a Hurricane to create a huge financial loss. A slow moving tropical depression or storm can sometimes create more financial damage by dumping copious amounts of rain and strong winds verses a fast moving hurricane that can be here today and gone tomorrow. So this is the time to start paying close attention to the forecast so here we go.
Starting you off at the current look. 92L INVEST is located at 34.9 N 32.8 W with top winds down to around 40 kts. This system remains nearly stationary and will produce LPG Swell of 13 plus seconds that will propagate throughout the Western Atlantic reaching P.R. and the Carib in about 72 hours. Will update the TAFB under the Surf Chart tab later today. Back mainland continued SE Flow East Coast Florida and switching more Southerly on the GOMEX side. Notice the convective activity on both sides of Central America.
On Monday a lighter Southerly flow begins to kick in with 92L spinning with a chance of development currently near 40% but decreasing. Florida will start to see some cleaner conditions with the lighter winds but will start to trend towards small for all as the week progresses. GOMEX goes flat.
Then on Tuesday a wind switch to the SW for Florida and a strong Southerly fetch setting up the NE States with choppy wind swell in the Chest to head High range.
Then on Wednesday not much to talk about. 92L fading and the gradient tightening up quite a bit for the NE. NE should see a small window of clean up.
On Thursday small for all and doldrums while we start to monitor the SW Carrib for increasing activity.
Then on Friday our attention starts to shift East of Florida and off the Mid-Atlantic as an area of low pressure may try and spin up here.
Same for Saturday
Here’s we things could start to become interesting. Check out the low of the Mid-Atlantic. That’s East winds 20-25 kts and a big jump in seas. This could setup the Mid-Atlantic with the first large Tropical Swell of the season and down in the SW Carrib near Honduras we now see the models begin to bring together what could be the first tropical storm of the 20012 season.
Here’s what the ECMWF another one of our favorites we sometimes follow for next Sunday.
and here is the latest run of the GFS for 5-23 showing an area of low pressure crossing over Cuba. The overall trend of the GFS over the last several days is showing a weaker system coming out of the SW Caribbean but has been bullish on bringing one up from there towards Florida. It’s a game of wait and see.
Regardless everyone should look at their schedule from 5-20 to 5-25 to see what’s on it. You may need to start thinking of a plan B towards the middle of the week as the forecast progresses so stay tuned to the forecast.
Here’s some Sat images taken this morning.
90E INVEST in the E-PAC
And 92L INVEST in the NE Atlantic
Stay tuned for the next update.